FED BALANCE SHEET VS. BITCOIN
Do the Fed's asset purchases and sales track the price of Bitcoin?
Total assets of the Federal Reserve, published weekly, set against the price of Bitcoin.
Fed balance sheet
US$ 6.73 T
Source: Federal Reserve (H.4.1) via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.16
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 180 days
- Effective frequency
- weekly
- Sample size
- 26 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.03
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (semanal).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 4 weeks (0.29). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 180-day correlation between Fed assets and BTC stands at -0.16, a very weak association in opposite directions, measured on returns at weekly frequency with 26 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- fed-total-assets, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 180 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.1568 · amostra=26.0000 · metodo=pearson
The current correlation (-0.16) is below the historical average of the rolling correlation series itself (0.03). The relationship weakened relative to the historical pattern over the available period.
- Series:
- fed-total-assets, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação atual − média da correlação móvel de todo o período
- Values:
- atual=-0.1568 · media_historica=0.0309 · diferenca=-0.1877
Fed balance sheet stands at 6,730,912,000,000.0000 US$ on 08/26/2026, a change of +0.40% from 05/27/2026.
- Series:
- fed-total-assets
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=6730912000000.0000 · data_atual=2026-08-26 · anterior=6704383000000.0000 · data_anterior=2026-05-27
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
What this chart measures
The size of the U.S. central bank's balance sheet, which grows when it buys securities and shrinks when it lets them mature without reinvesting.
Why this relationship matters
The Fed balance sheet is the most visible measure of unconventional monetary policy. Expansion means new money entering the financial system; contraction means the opposite.
How to read it
The series is weekly, dated Wednesday and released on Thursday. Abrupt short-term moves usually reflect technical operations rather than a change in policy.
When this relationship tends to hold
During announced asset purchase or runoff programs, when the direction is sustained for many months.
When it can break down
The size of the balance sheet is not the same thing as available liquidity. Money parked in the reverse repo facility or in the Treasury's account does not circulate. For that distinction, use the net liquidity chart.
Limitations
A meaningful share of the weekly variation is accounting in origin and does not indicate any change in the central bank's stance.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series WALCL, from the H.4.1 release, in millions of U.S. dollars, converted to dollars on ingestion. Published weekly on Thursdays, referring to the preceding Wednesday.
- Fed balance sheet
- Federal Reserve (H.4.1) via FRED · USD · weekly
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.