FED NET LIQUIDITY VS. BITCOIN
Does the liquidity that actually circulates in the system track Bitcoin?
Fed assets less the Treasury's cash balance and less overnight reverse repos, compared with Bitcoin.
Fed net liquidity (estimate)
US$ 5.77 T
Source: Calculado pelo Trade With Renato
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.14
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 180 days
- Effective frequency
- weekly
- Sample size
- 26 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.10
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (semanal).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 12 weeks (-0.24). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 180-day correlation between Net liquidity and BTC stands at 0.14, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at weekly frequency with 26 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- fed-net-liquidity, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/30/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 180 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.1405 · amostra=26.0000 · metodo=pearson
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: Net liquidity fell and BTC rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- fed-net-liquidity, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/30/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-89095000000.0000 · variacao_b=6470.6100
Fed net liquidity (estimate) stands at 5,770,775,000,000.0000 US$ on 08/26/2026, a change of −1.52% from 05/27/2026.
- Series:
- fed-net-liquidity
- Period:
- 08/30/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=5770775000000.0000 · data_atual=2026-08-26 · anterior=5859870000000.0000 · data_anterior=2026-05-27
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
What this chart measures
An estimate of the liquidity genuinely available to the financial system, subtracting from the Fed balance sheet the money that is parked outside circulation.
Why this relationship matters
The Fed can hold its balance sheet steady while the Treasury builds cash, and the practical effect on markets is tightening. This measure attempts to capture the net effect, which the balance sheet alone conceals.
How to read it
Sharp declines have often coincided with large Treasury issuance, which pulls money out of the system and into the government's account.
When this relationship tends to hold
Over windows of weeks to a few months, when large moves in the TGA or the reverse repo facility dominate the picture.
When it can break down
The formula is a popular approximation, not an official definition of liquidity. It ignores, for example, private bank credit, which is a larger source of liquidity than the Fed balance sheet.
Limitations
The choice of these three components is conventional, not canonical — other versions include additional accounts. The TGA series had to be stitched across two schema changes at the U.S. Treasury, in 2021 and in May 2022. And the result mixes frequencies: weekly for the balance sheet, daily for the deductions.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
Net liquidity ≈ Fed assets (WALCL, weekly) − Treasury General Account (Daily Treasury Statement, daily) − Overnight Reverse Repo (RRPONTSYD, daily). The calculation follows the weekly WALCL calendar and, for each Wednesday, takes the most recent value available for the other two series up to that date. All components are converted to U.S. dollars before the subtraction. This is a widely used ESTIMATE, not an official measure published by any central bank.
- Fed net liquidity (estimate)
- Calculado pelo Trade With Renato · USD · weekly
Licence: Derivado de fontes de domínio público
Formula: Liquidez líquida ≈ Ativos do Fed − TGA − ON RRP
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.