GLOBAL M2 VS. BITCOIN
Does the expansion of the world's money supply track the price of Bitcoin?
Compares the broad money supply of the United States, the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom, in U.S. dollars, with the price of Bitcoin.
Global M2 (Trade With Renato index)
US$ 54.28 T
Source: Calculado pelo Trade With Renato
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.02
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
Not enough data to compute the correlation over this window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 365 days
- Effective frequency
- monthly
- Sample size
- 12 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.15
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (mensal).
- Amostra de 12 observações é pequena demais para uma leitura confiável (mínimo recomendado: 20).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 16 weeks (0.60). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The selected window produced only 12 comparable observations. There is not enough evidence to state that the measured relationship is stable.
- Series:
- global-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- contagem de pares de observações simultâneas na janela
- Values:
- amostra=12.0000
The 365-day correlation between Global M2 and BTC stands at 0.02, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at monthly frequency with 12 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- global-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 365 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.0159 · amostra=12.0000 · metodo=pearson
The current correlation (0.02) is above the historical average of the rolling correlation series itself (-0.15). The two series are more synchronised than the norm over the available period.
- Series:
- global-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- correlação atual − média da correlação móvel de todo o período
- Values:
- atual=0.0159 · media_historica=-0.1497 · diferenca=0.1656
Global M2 (Trade With Renato index) stands at 54,281,706,269,889.6000 US$ on 07/01/2026, a change of +0.36% from 04/01/2026.
- Series:
- global-m2
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=54281706269889.6016 · data_atual=2026-07-01 · anterior=54086810968308.2969 · data_anterior=2026-04-01
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of Global M2 (Trade With Renato index) sits at percentile 93 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the top of the available historical range.
- Series:
- global-m2
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=54281706269889.6016 · percentil=93.2203 · observacoes=59.0000
What this chart measures
The sum of the broad money aggregates of the four largest economies with stable public data, converted into U.S. dollars, set against the price of Bitcoin.
Why this relationship matters
Bitcoin has a fixed, pre-programmed supply. When the quantity of money in the world grows faster than the supply of a scarce asset, there is a structural argument for that asset to appreciate when measured in that currency. It is the "hard money" thesis in its most direct form.
How to read it
Rebased to 100, both lines start from the same point, which allows you to compare the pace of growth rather than the level. A widening gap between the lines indicates that one of the two has decoupled. Use the lag control to test whether liquidity has tended to move ahead of price.
When this relationship tends to hold
The relationship has tended to show up more clearly over long windows, of a year or more, and in periods of a clear shift in the monetary regime — large expansions or large contractions.
When it can break down
Over short windows Bitcoin is dominated by flows, leverage and news, and global liquidity explains little. The relationship also weakens when shocks specific to the crypto market dominate price, such as exchange failures or cascading liquidations.
Limitations
The absence of China is a material limitation: it accounts for a sizeable share of the world's money. Using end-of-period exchange rates introduces currency volatility into the index, which is not money creation. Monetary aggregates are revised. And, above all, even a high correlation here does not establish causation: both series trend upward over the long run, which inflates any correlation measured on levels.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
Global M2 = U.S. M2 + euro area M2 converted to U.S. dollars + Japan M2 converted to U.S. dollars + United Kingdom M4 converted to U.S. dollars. Each component comes from the primary source of the respective central bank, at monthly frequency. The conversion uses end-of-period exchange rates from the Federal Reserve's H.10 release. China is excluded from the index: the PBoC publishes no stable endpoint and its robots.txt restricts automated collection. The United Kingdom enters with M4 rather than M2, because the country does not publish M2 on the same definition — the difference is documented. The index is proprietary to Trade With Renato and does not correspond to any official series.
- Global M2 (Trade With Renato index)
- Calculado pelo Trade With Renato · USD · monthly
Licence: Derivado de fontes citadas
Formula: M2 global = M2_EUA + (M2_zona_euro × USD/EUR) + (M2_Japão ÷ JPY/USD) + (M4_RU × USD/GBP)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.