Market intelligence
RADAR ULIANOV
An integrated view of the forces that move global capital.
Current state
SYSTEM READING
Eight independent dimensions, each decided by an explicit rule. Open any card to see the exact rule, the period evaluated and the series used.
LiquidityContractingUS$ 5.77 T−1.52%View rule
Rule: 13-week change in Fed net liquidity. Above +1%: expanding. Below −1%: contracting. Between the two: neutral.
Period: 13 weeks
Series: Net liquidity
Data through: 08/26/2026
Monetary policyTightening priced in+0.56 ppView rule
Rule: Expectation proxy (2-year Treasury − effective Fed Funds). Below −0.25 pp: the market prices easing. Above +0.25 pp: it prices tightening. Between the two: neutral.
Period: current value
Series: Fed expectations, Fed Funds
Data through: 08/26/2026
DollarWeakening118.06−1.03%View rule
Rule: 90-day change in the Fed broad dollar index. Above +1%: strengthening. Below −1%: weakening.
Period: 90 days
Series: Dollar (broad)
Data through: 08/21/2026
Real ratesRising2.34%+0.28 ppView rule
Rule: 90-day change in the 10-year real yield. Above +0.20 pp: rising. Below −0.20 pp: falling.
Period: 90 days
Series: 10Y real
Data through: 08/26/2026
CreditHealthy-0.566−0.059View rule
Rule: Level of the Chicago Fed NFCI (0 = historical average) combined with its 13-week change. Above zero and rising: stressed. Above zero or rising: deteriorating. Below zero and flat or falling: healthy.
Period: current value and 13 weeks
Series: NFCI, Stress
Data through: 08/21/2026
VolatilityModerate15.21percentile 33View rule
Rule: Percentile of the VIX within its own historical distribution since 1990. Below the 33rd percentile: low. Above the 66th percentile: elevated.
Period: percentile over the full history
Series: VIX
Data through: 08/26/2026
CryptoAltcoin expansionUS$ 80,273ETH/BTC +14.09% over 90 daysView rule
Rule: Combines the position of Bitcoin relative to its 200-day moving average with the 90-day change in ETH/BTC. BTC below the average: defensive. BTC above and ETH/BTC falling: BTC-led. BTC above and ETH/BTC up more than 5%: altcoin expansion. All other cases: transition.
Period: 90 days and the 200-day average
Series: BTC, ETH/BTC
Data through: 08/27/2026
GeopoliticsUnavailableData not integrated yetView rule
Rule: 30-day average of the Geopolitical Risk Index of Caldara and Iacoviello, compared with its historical average. Source not yet integrated — planned for the expansion phase.
Period: 30-day average
Series: gpr-index
The states above describe what the data shows over the period indicated. They are neither a forecast nor a recommendation, and the CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. between series does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period..
In motion
FEATURED CHARTS
Selected by the shift in correlation relative to each pair’s own historical average and by structural relevance — not by price variation. Every card states the reason for the selection.
Rates and the dollar
Dollar index vs. Bitcoin
Does a strong dollar weigh on Bitcoin?
Correlation 90d: -0.40
The 90-day correlation fell to -0.40, below its historical average of -0.10
Global liquidity
U.S. M2 vs. Bitcoin
Does the U.S. money supply help explain the behavior of Bitcoin?
Correlation 365d: 0.03
The 365-day correlation fell to 0.03, below its historical average of 0.35
Rates and the dollar
10-year real yield vs. Bitcoin
Does the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets weigh on Bitcoin?
Correlation 180d: -0.19
The 180-day correlation fell to -0.19, below its historical average of 0.02
Global liquidity
Global M2 vs. Bitcoin
Does the expansion of the world's money supply track the price of Bitcoin?
Correlation 365d: 0.02
365-day correlation at 0.02, close to its historical pattern
Gold, energy, and commodities
Bitcoin vs. gold
Does Bitcoin work as digital gold?
Correlation 365d: 0.00
The 365-day correlation rose to 0.00, above its historical average of -0.25
TradFi × crypto
Bitcoin vs. U.S. equities
Is Bitcoin behaving like a traditional risk asset?
Correlation 365d: 0.02
365-day correlation at 0.02, close to its historical pattern
Explore
MAP OF RELATIONSHIPS
Global liquidity
How much money exists in the system and where it is going. Money supply aggregates, central bank balance sheets, and the net liquidity that actually circulates.
Rates and the dollar
The price of money and the strength of the reserve currency. Yield curve, real yield, Fed rate expectations, and the dollar index.
TradFi × crypto
Is Bitcoin behaving like a tech stock, like gold, or like its own asset class? Rolling correlations with equities, gold, and volatility.
Credit and risk
The risk-aversion thermometer. Financial conditions, stress in the system, and corporate credit spreads.
Crypto internal structure
Where capital moves within the crypto market itself. Dominance, rotation into altcoins, and the stablecoin "native cash."
On-chain and derivatives
What the blockchain and the derivatives market show beneath the price. Supply, cost of production, leverage, and positioning.
Gold, energy, and commodities
Monetary and real assets. Gold as a store of value, energy as an inflation input, and metals as a growth thermometer.
Geopolitics
Geopolitical risk treated as an event, not just a continuous correlation. Wars, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions.
Debt and fiscal policy
The public balance sheet and its effects on long-term rates, the dollar, and reserve assets. Debt, deficit, and interest expense.
How to read the Radar
THREE THINGS THAT CHANGE HOW YOU READ IT
Correlation on returns, not on price. Two series that only rise over the long run produce a high correlation even with no relationship between them. That is why the default here is to compute over CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation., and correlation on levels always carries a warning.
The lag is always visible. When a series is shifted in time to test Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance., the chart says so. The adjustment is never hidden.
A mathematical mirror is not a relationship. A chart of Bitcoin dominanceBitcoin's share of total cryptocurrency market capitalization.Why it matters: It indicates whether capital is concentrated in Bitcoin or spread across the rest of the market.How to read it: A decline in dominance tends to accompany rotation into altcoins — but only when the market as a whole is rising.Common mistake: Comparing Bitcoin dominance with "altcoin dominance." Since the latter is defined as 100% minus the former, the chart is a mathematical mirror image: the correlation is always exactly -1 and carries no new information. against altcoin dominance has a correlation of exactly −1 by construction, because one is defined as 100% minus the other. Here we use comparisons that carry real information.
Sources
WHERE THE DATA COMES FROM
| Source | Series | Licence |
|---|---|---|
| FRED / Federal Reserve | 19 | Public domain, with the exceptions noted in the attribution |
| Computed (Trade With Renato) | 8 | Derived from the sources cited |
| Coinbase Exchange | 2 | Public market data from Coinbase Exchange |
| CoinGecko | 2 | Requires a CoinGecko plan with a commercial licence |
| U.S. Treasury | 2 | Public domain — commercial use permitted |
| Twelve Data | 2 | Contract pending |
| European Central Bank | 1 | Reuse permitted, including commercial, with attribution to the ECB |
| Bank of Japan | 1 | Use permitted with credit and notification to the Bank of Japan |
| Bank of England | 1 | Open Government Licence v3.0 — commercial use permitted |
| DefiLlama | 1 | Requires written permission from DefiLlama for commercial republication |
| International Monetary Fund | 1 | IMF terms — commercial publication and distribution permitted with attribution |
Every chart shows its source and the time of the last successful update. When a series is delayed, the Radar says it is delayed and keeps the last valid value — it never substitutes zero and never hides the failure.
Operations