TOTAL STABLECOIN SUPPLY VS. BITCOIN
Does money entering the crypto market lead the move in price?
The total circulating supply of dollar-pegged stablecoins, compared with the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Data source pending
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We do not display simulated data or estimates in place of the actual observation.
What this chart measures
The stock of "dollars" that exists inside the crypto market itself, available to buy assets without passing through a bank.
Why this relationship matters
Stablecoin issuance is one of the few direct measures of new money entering the ecosystem. Sustained expansion indicates capital arriving; contraction indicates capital leaving.
How to read it
Watch the rate of change, not the level. Acceleration in issuance is the signal, and it has tended to appear before large price moves more often than after them.
When this relationship tends to hold
In periods of sustained capital inflow or outflow, over a span of weeks.
When it can break down
Part of the issuance serves payments demand and markets outside the United States, unrelated to risk appetite. Regulatory changes affecting a single issuer also distort the total.
Limitations
The measure aggregates issuers with very different reserve models. Migration between issuers shows up as movement in the total even when no new money has arrived.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
Total circulating supply in U.S. dollars of all dollar-pegged stablecoins tracked by DefiLlama, at daily frequency.
- Total stablecoin supply
- DefiLlama · USD · daily
Licence: Requer permissão escrita da DefiLlama para republicação comercial
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.