BITCOIN VS. U.S. EQUITIES
Is Bitcoin behaving like a traditional risk asset?
Bitcoin compared with the monthly U.S. share price index compiled by the OECD.
U.S. equities (share price index, OECD)
220.08
Source: OCDE via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.02
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
Not enough data to compute the correlation over this window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 365 days
- Effective frequency
- monthly
- Sample size
- 12 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.05
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (mensal).
- Amostra de 12 observações é pequena demais para uma leitura confiável (mínimo recomendado: 20).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 24 weeks (-0.62). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The selected window produced only 12 comparable observations. There is not enough evidence to state that the measured relationship is stable.
- Series:
- us-equities, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 06/01/2026
- Formula:
- contagem de pares de observações simultâneas na janela
- Values:
- amostra=12.0000
The 365-day correlation between US equities and BTC stands at 0.02, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at monthly frequency with 12 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- us-equities, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 06/01/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 365 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.0233 · amostra=12.0000 · metodo=pearson
U.S. equities (share price index, OECD) stands at 220.0752 Index (2015 = 100) on 06/01/2026, a change of +5.52% from 03/01/2026.
- Series:
- us-equities
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 06/01/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=220.0752 · data_atual=2026-06-01 · anterior=208.5646 · data_anterior=2026-03-01
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of U.S. equities (share price index, OECD) sits at percentile 100 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the top of the available historical range.
- Series:
- us-equities
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 06/01/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=220.0752 · percentil=100.0000 · observacoes=58.0000
What this chart measures
The degree of synchronization between Bitcoin and the U.S. equity market as a whole, measured monthly.
Why this relationship matters
This is the identity question for Bitcoin. If it moves with equities, the market is treating it as a risk asset rather than an alternative store of value. The answer changes with the macroeconomic regime, which is why the rolling correlation matters more than any long-run average.
How to read it
The rolling correlation line matters more than the price lines. A high correlation indicates that Bitcoin is trading as part of the risk complex; close to zero, that it is following its own factors.
When this relationship tends to hold
The correlation has risen in periods of monetary tightening and broad market stress, when a single macro factor moves equities and crypto in the same direction.
When it can break down
It collapses around events specific to the crypto market — platform failures, regulatory decisions — and during banking crises, when Bitcoin has occasionally decoupled.
Limitations
Monthly frequency: a 365-day window amounts to twelve observations, which is little for a stable correlation, and intra-month moves disappear. The OECD index is also not identical to the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq — it is a broad measure with its own composition and weighting. A high correlation does not mean that equities cause the move in Bitcoin, or the reverse: both may be responding to a third common factor, typically liquidity and interest rates.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series SPASTT01USM661N: the U.S. share price index compiled by the OECD, monthly, 2015 = 100. This is the only broad measure of the U.S. equity market that is both free and publicly displayable. The levels of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 are the property of S&P Dow Jones Indices and Nasdaq OMX and require prior written authorization — FRED flags both as "Pre-Approval Required" and the adapter refuses to ingest them. The statistical comparison is run at monthly frequency, the only one carrying independent information in both series.
- U.S. equities (share price index, OECD)
- OCDE via FRED · Index (2015 = 100) · monthly
Licence: Direito autoral da OCDE — exibição permitida mediante citação
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.