FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (NFCI) VS. BITCOIN
Are financial conditions tight or loose, and does Bitcoin respond to that?
The financial conditions index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which combines more than 100 measures, set against Bitcoin.
National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
-0.566
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
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CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.25
Historically associated: weak co-movement, in opposite directions, over the observed window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 365 days
- Effective frequency
- weekly
- Sample size
- 52 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.16
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (semanal).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 24 weeks (0.37). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 365-day correlation between NFCI and BTC stands at -0.25, a weak association in opposite directions, measured on returns at weekly frequency with 52 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- nfci, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 365 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.2488 · amostra=52.0000 · metodo=pearson
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: NFCI fell and BTC rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- nfci, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-0.0590 · variacao_b=6470.6100
National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) stands at -0.5660 Index (0 = historical average) on 08/21/2026, a change of +11.64% from 05/22/2026.
- Series:
- nfci
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=-0.5660 · data_atual=2026-08-21 · anterior=-0.5070 · data_anterior=2026-05-22
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) sits at percentile 5 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the bottom of the available historical range.
- Series:
- nfci
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=-0.5660 · percentil=5.3846 · observacoes=260.0000
What this chart measures
A weekly summary of how easy or hard it is to obtain funding in the U.S. economy, combining the money, credit and equity markets and the banking system.
Why this relationship matters
It is arguably the best single measure of financial conditions available publicly, and it is built by a central bank — not a subjective index assembled by an analyst.
How to read it
Zero is the historical average. Positive means conditions tighter than normal; negative, looser than normal.
When this relationship tends to hold
As a reading of the prevailing regime, over windows of several months.
When it can break down
It is weekly and published with a five-day lag. It does not describe what is happening today in the market.
Limitations
Being an index weighted across many variables, it is revised whenever its components are revised.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series NFCI, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, weekly with Friday data and released the following Wednesday. Correlation on the first difference.
- National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED · Index (0 = historical average) · weekly
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.