BITCOIN VS. NASDAQ-100
Is Bitcoin behaving like a technology stock?
Bitcoin compared with the Nasdaq-100, represented by the QQQ ETF, with rolling correlation.
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ proxy)
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Source: Pendente de provedor licenciado
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Data source pending
This chart is not shown yet because the series Nasdaq-100 (QQQ proxy) depends on a licensed provider that has not been contracted yet. The integration is already in place, and the chart starts working as soon as the source is configured.
We do not display simulated data or estimates in place of the actual observation.
What this chart measures
The degree of synchronization between Bitcoin and the largest U.S. technology companies.
Why this relationship matters
This is the identity question for Bitcoin. If it moves with the Nasdaq, the market is treating it as a long-duration risk asset rather than an alternative store of value. The answer changes with the macroeconomic regime.
How to read it
The rolling correlation line matters more than the price lines. A correlation above 0.6 indicates that Bitcoin is trading alongside technology; close to zero, that it is following its own factors.
When this relationship tends to hold
The correlation has risen in periods of monetary tightening and broad market stress, when all risk assets move together.
When it can break down
It collapses around events specific to the crypto market and during banking crises, when Bitcoin has occasionally decoupled.
Limitations
A high correlation does not mean that the Nasdaq causes the move in Bitcoin, or the reverse. Both may be responding to a third common factor — typically liquidity and interest rates.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
The LEVEL of the Nasdaq-100 index is the property of Nasdaq OMX and requires prior approval for public display. We use the QQQ ETF, which tracks the index and is an exchange-traded security covered by standard market data redistribution agreements. The two series are visually almost indistinguishable, but they are not identical: the ETF carries a management fee and distributes dividends.
- Nasdaq-100 (QQQ proxy)
- Pendente de provedor licenciado · USD · business days
Licence: Pendente
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.