VIX VS. BITCOIN
Does fear in the equity market spill over into Bitcoin?
The expected implied volatility of the S&P 500 compared with the price of Bitcoin.
VIX — S&P 500 implied volatility
15.21
Source: Cboe Exchange, Inc. via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.36
Historically associated: weak co-movement, in opposite directions, over the observed window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 90 days
- Effective frequency
- business days
- Sample size
- 64 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.35
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (dias úteis).
- 9 datas descartadas por ausência de observação simultânea nas duas séries.
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 90-day correlation between VIX and BTC stands at -0.36, a weak association in opposite directions, measured on returns at business-daily frequency with 64 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- vix, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 90 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.3604 · amostra=64.0000 · metodo=pearson
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: VIX fell and BTC rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- vix, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-0.5300 · variacao_b=6470.6100
VIX — S&P 500 implied volatility stands at 15.2100 Index on 08/26/2026, a change of −3.37% from 05/28/2026.
- Series:
- vix
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=15.2100 · data_atual=2026-08-26 · anterior=15.7400 · data_anterior=2026-05-28
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
What this chart measures
The VIX measures how much movement the options market expects in the S&P 500 over the next thirty days.
Why this relationship matters
Spikes in the VIX mark moments of risk aversion. If Bitcoin falls alongside in those moments, the market is treating it as a risk asset rather than a hedge.
How to read it
Watch the spikes, not the average level. The VIX spends most of its time in a low range and the signal is in the extremes.
When this relationship tends to hold
During acute episodes of stress, when the VIX jumps above 30 and risk aversion becomes broad.
When it can break down
In a regime of low and stable volatility, the correlation with the VIX carries no useful information.
Limitations
The VIX reflects options on U.S. equities, not on crypto. Bitcoin's own implied volatility, traded on Deribit and the CME, would be a more direct measure — it is planned for a future expansion.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series VIXCLS, the daily close of the Cboe VIX index. Correlation computed on the first difference of the VIX and on the logarithmic return of Bitcoin.
- VIX — S&P 500 implied volatility
- Cboe Exchange, Inc. via FRED · Index · business days
Licence: Direito autoral da Cboe — exibição permitida mediante citação
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.