BITCOIN VS. GOLD
Does Bitcoin work as digital gold?
The two leading non-sovereign monetary assets, side by side.
Gold (monthly average price)
US$ 4,075
Source: Fundo Monetário Internacional — Primary Commodity Prices
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.00
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
Not enough data to compute the correlation over this window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 365 days
- Effective frequency
- monthly
- Sample size
- 12 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.06
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (mensal).
- Amostra de 12 observações é pequena demais para uma leitura confiável (mínimo recomendado: 20).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 4 weeks (-0.54). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The selected window produced only 12 comparable observations. There is not enough evidence to state that the measured relationship is stable.
- Series:
- gold-spot, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- contagem de pares de observações simultâneas na janela
- Values:
- amostra=12.0000
The 365-day correlation between Gold and BTC stands at 0.00, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at monthly frequency with 12 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- gold-spot, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 365 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.0022 · amostra=12.0000 · metodo=pearson
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: Gold fell and BTC rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- gold-spot, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-644.8750 · variacao_b=6470.6100
Gold (monthly average price) stands at 4,075.0968 USD per troy ounce on 07/31/2026, a change of −13.66% from 04/30/2026.
- Series:
- gold-spot
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=4075.0968 · data_atual=2026-07-31 · anterior=4719.9718 · data_anterior=2026-04-30
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
What this chart measures
The relative behavior of two assets that share the property of being nobody's liability.
Why this relationship matters
The "digital gold" thesis predicts that both respond to the same stimuli: currency debasement, low real yields, institutional distrust. The data suggests that this convergence is intermittent.
How to read it
The correlation between the two is historically low and unstable. Periods in which it rises are more informative than the average level.
When this relationship tends to hold
During episodes of acute monetary or geopolitical stress, when the two have risen together.
When it can break down
Most of the time. Gold is a low-volatility asset with established institutional demand; Bitcoin is high-volatility with demand still forming. Treating them as equivalent ignores that difference.
Limitations
The historical window in which the two assets coexist with comparable liquidity is short — little more than a decade. The monthly frequency reduces the number of observations: a 365-day window amounts to twelve points, which is little for a stable correlation. A monthly average price also smooths away spikes that a daily series would show.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
MONTHLY average price of gold in U.S. dollars per troy ounce, published by the International Monetary Fund (series PGOLD of the Primary Commodity Price System). The frequency is monthly for licensing reasons, not technical ones: FRED's daily gold series were removed in January 2022 when the ICE Benchmark Administration withdrew the data, and every daily benchmark (LBMA/IBA) requires a paid license. The IMF's terms explicitly permit publication and commercial distribution with attribution. The statistical comparison is run at monthly frequency.
- Gold (monthly average price)
- Fundo Monetário Internacional — Primary Commodity Prices · USD per troy ounce · monthly
Licence: Termos do FMI — publicação e distribuição comercial permitidas com atribuição
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.