BITCOIN/GOLD RATIO VS. REAL YIELD
Which of the two monetary assets is leading, and does the real yield explain it?
How many ounces of gold buy one Bitcoin, compared with the U.S. 10-year real yield.
Bitcoin/gold ratio
15.42
Source: Calculado pelo Trade With Renato
U.S. 10-year real yield
2.34%
Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.47
Historically associated: moderate co-movement, in the same direction, over the observed window.
Not enough data to compute the correlation over this window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 180 days
- Effective frequency
- monthly
- Sample size
- 6 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.05
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (mensal).
- Amostra de 6 observações é pequena demais para uma leitura confiável (mínimo recomendado: 20).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 1 week (-0.77). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The selected window produced only 6 comparable observations. There is not enough evidence to state that the measured relationship is stable.
- Series:
- btc-gold-ratio, us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- contagem de pares de observações simultâneas na janela
- Values:
- amostra=6.0000
The 180-day correlation between BTC/Gold and 10Y real stands at 0.47, a moderate association in the same direction, measured on returns at monthly frequency with 6 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- btc-gold-ratio, us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 180 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.4668 · amostra=6.0000 · metodo=pearson
The current correlation (0.47) is above the historical average of the rolling correlation series itself (-0.05). The two series are more synchronised than the norm over the available period.
- Series:
- btc-gold-ratio, us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- correlação atual − média da correlação móvel de todo o período
- Values:
- atual=0.4668 · media_historica=-0.0541 · diferenca=0.5209
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: BTC/Gold fell and 10Y real rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- btc-gold-ratio, us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-0.7495 · variacao_b=0.2800
Bitcoin/gold ratio stands at 15.4170 troy ounces per BTC on 07/31/2026, a change of −4.64% from 04/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-gold-ratio
- Period:
- 08/31/2021 to 07/31/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=15.4170 · data_atual=2026-07-31 · anterior=16.1666 · data_anterior=2026-04-30
U.S. 10-year real yield stands at 2.34 % on 08/26/2026, a change of +0.28 % from 05/28/2026.
- Series:
- us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- valor atual − valor de ~90 dias atrás
- Values:
- atual=2.3400 · data_atual=2026-08-26 · anterior=2.0600 · data_anterior=2026-05-28
The current value of U.S. 10-year real yield sits at percentile 96 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the top of the available historical range.
- Series:
- us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=2.3400 · percentil=96.3913 · observacoes=1303.0000
What this chart measures
The relative strength of Bitcoin against gold, isolated from dollar inflation, set against the opportunity cost of holding either.
Why this relationship matters
Measuring Bitcoin in gold removes the effect of dollar debasement from both sides. What remains is the market's relative preference between the old store of value and the new one.
How to read it
A rising ratio means Bitcoin gaining on gold. The interesting question is whether that preference shifts with the real yield.
When this relationship tends to hold
Over long real yield cycles, measured in quarters rather than weeks.
When it can break down
The ratio is dominated by the volatility of Bitcoin, which is several times that of gold. It almost always looks like a Bitcoin chart.
Limitations
By construction, the ratio inherits the volatility of its numerator — it almost always looks like a Bitcoin chart. The monthly frequency limits the number of observations available for correlation.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
Ratio = price of Bitcoin in U.S. dollars ÷ monthly average price of gold in U.S. dollars per troy ounce (IMF, series PGOLD). Compared with the 10-year real yield (DFII10). Because gold is monthly, the ratio is monthly as well and the statistical comparison happens at that frequency.
- Bitcoin/gold ratio
- Calculado pelo Trade With Renato · troy ounces per BTC · monthly
Licence: Derivado de fontes citadas
Formula: BTC/Ouro = preço_BTC_USD ÷ preço_ouro_USD_por_onça
View at the original source - U.S. 10-year real yield
- U.S. Treasury via FRED · % per year · business days
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.