10-YEAR REAL YIELD VS. BITCOIN
Does the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets weigh on Bitcoin?
The 10-year real yield, measured by inflation-linked Treasuries, set against Bitcoin.
U.S. 10-year real yield
2.34%
Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.19
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 180 days
- Effective frequency
- business days
- Sample size
- 129 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.05
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (dias úteis).
- 56 datas descartadas por ausência de observação simultânea nas duas séries.
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 4 weeks (0.22). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 180-day correlation between 10Y real and BTC stands at -0.19, a very weak association in opposite directions, measured on returns at business-daily frequency with 129 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- us-10y-real, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 180 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.1935 · amostra=129.0000 · metodo=pearson
U.S. 10-year real yield stands at 2.34 % on 08/26/2026, a change of +0.28 % from 05/28/2026.
- Series:
- us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- valor atual − valor de ~90 dias atrás
- Values:
- atual=2.3400 · data_atual=2026-08-26 · anterior=2.0600 · data_anterior=2026-05-28
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of U.S. 10-year real yield sits at percentile 96 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the top of the available historical range.
- Series:
- us-10y-real
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=2.3400 · percentil=96.3913 · observacoes=1303.0000
What this chart measures
The return above expected inflation that an investor earns on 10-year U.S. government bonds.
Why this relationship matters
Bitcoin and gold pay no interest. When the real yield rises, holding those assets costs more in terms of forgone return. It is the same mechanism that has historically weighed on gold.
How to read it
The expected relationship is inverse: as the real yield rises, non-yielding assets come under pressure. Watch whether the rolling correlation is close to zero — in that case, the mechanism is not operating in the period.
When this relationship tends to hold
In clear cycles of monetary tightening or easing, and more strongly for gold than for Bitcoin.
When it can break down
Bitcoin is still dominated by flows and by the adoption narrative. The real yield channel shows up less consistently in Bitcoin than in gold.
Limitations
The market real yield embeds a TIPS liquidity premium and is not a pure measure of the real rate. The history begins in 2003.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series DFII10, yield on the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury (TIPS) at constant maturity. Correlation computed on the first difference of the yield and on the logarithmic return of Bitcoin.
- U.S. 10-year real yield
- U.S. Treasury via FRED · % per year · business days
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.