BITCOIN VS. S&P 500
Does Bitcoin track the U.S. equity market as a whole?
Bitcoin compared with the S&P 500, represented by the SPY ETF, with rolling correlation.
S&P 500 (SPY proxy)
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Source: Pendente de provedor licenciado
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Data source pending
This chart is not shown yet because the series S&P 500 (SPY proxy) depends on a licensed provider that has not been contracted yet. The integration is already in place, and the chart starts working as soon as the source is configured.
We do not display simulated data or estimates in place of the actual observation.
What this chart measures
The relationship between Bitcoin and the main U.S. equity index, broader and less concentrated in technology than the Nasdaq.
Why this relationship matters
Comparing against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq at the same time separates two things: general risk appetite and appetite for technology specifically.
How to read it
When the correlation with the Nasdaq is much higher than with the S&P, Bitcoin is being treated as a technology asset. When the two are similar, it is simply following general risk.
When this relationship tends to hold
In regimes of synchronized risk, when a single macro factor — liquidity, interest rates or a growth shock — moves equities and crypto in the same direction.
When it can break down
In shocks specific to one side: a U.S. earnings season or a crypto regulatory event knocks the correlation down without anything having changed in the structural relationship.
Limitations
Same limitations as the Nasdaq chart: correlation is not causation, and the ETF proxy is not the index.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
The LEVEL of the S&P 500 index requires prior written permission from S&P Dow Jones Indices. We use the SPY ETF as a proxy, for the same reason described on the Nasdaq chart.
- S&P 500 (SPY proxy)
- Pendente de provedor licenciado · USD · business days
Licence: Pendente
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.