YIELD CURVE 10-YEAR − 2-YEAR VS. BITCOIN
Does the shape of the yield curve say anything about the Bitcoin cycle?
The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields, a classic business cycle indicator, set against Bitcoin.
10-year minus 2-year yield curve
0.47 pp
Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.06
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 180 days
- Effective frequency
- business days
- Sample size
- 129 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.02
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (dias úteis).
- 56 datas descartadas por ausência de observação simultânea nas duas séries.
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 180-day correlation between 10Y−2Y and BTC stands at 0.06, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at business-daily frequency with 129 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- yield-curve-10y2y, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/27/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 180 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.0595 · amostra=129.0000 · metodo=pearson
10-year minus 2-year yield curve stands at 0.47 pp on 08/27/2026, a change of +0.00 pp from 05/29/2026.
- Series:
- yield-curve-10y2y
- Period:
- 08/30/2021 to 08/27/2026
- Formula:
- valor atual − valor de ~90 dias atrás
- Values:
- atual=0.4700 · data_atual=2026-08-27 · anterior=0.4700 · data_anterior=2026-05-29
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
What this chart measures
The slope of the U.S. yield curve. A negative value means an inverted curve — short rates above long rates.
Why this relationship matters
Curve inversion has preceded every recent U.S. recession, generally by one to two years. What has usually marked the onset of stress, however, is not the inversion itself: it is the DIS-INVERSION, when the curve steepens again because the Fed begins cutting rates in response to deterioration.
How to read it
Pay more attention to the turns than to the level. The move from negative to positive is the historically relevant event.
When this relationship tends to hold
As a regime indicator for the cycle, over windows of several quarters.
When it can break down
As a short-term indicator, the curve is close to useless: it moves slowly and the historical lags are long and highly variable.
Limitations
The sample of recessions is small — half a dozen episodes — and Bitcoin exists in only one of them. Any reading of the cycle here lacks the sample size to be conclusive.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series T10Y2Y, the spread between DGS10 and DGS2 in percentage points, daily on business days. Correlation on the first difference.
- 10-year minus 2-year yield curve
- U.S. Treasury via FRED · percentage points · business days
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.