2-YEAR TREASURY VS. BITCOIN
Do the market's rate expectations affect Bitcoin?
The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy, set against Bitcoin.
2-year Treasury
4.19%
Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.22
Historically associated: weak co-movement, in opposite directions, over the observed window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 90 days
- Effective frequency
- business days
- Sample size
- 64 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.06
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (dias úteis).
- 34 datas descartadas por ausência de observação simultânea nas duas séries.
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 90-day correlation between 2Y and BTC stands at -0.22, a weak association in opposite directions, measured on returns at business-daily frequency with 64 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- us-2y, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 90 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.2175 · amostra=64.0000 · metodo=pearson
The current correlation (-0.22) is below the historical average of the rolling correlation series itself (0.06). The relationship weakened relative to the historical pattern over the available period.
- Series:
- us-2y, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- correlação atual − média da correlação móvel de todo o período
- Values:
- atual=-0.2175 · media_historica=0.0564 · diferenca=-0.2739
2-year Treasury stands at 4.19 % on 08/26/2026, a change of +0.20 % from 05/28/2026.
- Series:
- us-2y
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/26/2026
- Formula:
- valor atual − valor de ~90 dias atrás
- Values:
- atual=4.1900 · data_atual=2026-08-26 · anterior=3.9900 · data_anterior=2026-05-28
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
What this chart measures
The 2-year yield summarizes what the market expects from U.S. interest rate policy over the next two years.
Why this relationship matters
Before the Fed cuts or raises rates, the 2-year note has already moved. It is a forward-looking gauge of monetary policy, more informative than the current policy rate.
How to read it
The comparison uses two independent axes because the units are incompatible: one is in percent per year, the other in dollars. In the correlation, the yield series enters as a first difference — change in percentage points — rather than as a percentage return, which makes no sense for a rate.
When this relationship tends to hold
At moments of rapid repricing of monetary policy, when the market changes its mind about the Fed.
When it can break down
In periods of stable rates, the series barely moves and the correlation ends up measuring noise.
Limitations
Yield series do not admit logarithmic returns. Comparisons that apply percentage returns to interest rates produce numbers with no economic meaning — this chart does not do that.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series DGS2, market yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury at constant maturity, investment basis, daily on business days. In the correlation, the transformation applied is the first difference.
- 2-year Treasury
- U.S. Treasury via FRED · % per year · business days
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.
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