DOLLAR INDEX VS. BITCOIN
Does a strong dollar weigh on Bitcoin?
The broad dollar index calculated by the Federal Reserve, compared with the price of Bitcoin.
Broad dollar index (Fed)
118.06
Source: Federal Reserve (H.10) via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.40
Historically associated: moderate co-movement, in opposite directions, over the observed window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 90 days
- Effective frequency
- business days
- Sample size
- 64 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.10
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (dias úteis).
- 33 datas descartadas por ausência de observação simultânea nas duas séries.
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 90-day correlation between Dollar (broad) and BTC stands at -0.40, a moderate association in opposite directions, measured on returns at business-daily frequency with 64 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- dollar-broad-index, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 90 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.4028 · amostra=64.0000 · metodo=pearson
The current correlation (-0.40) is below the historical average of the rolling correlation series itself (-0.10). The relationship weakened relative to the historical pattern over the available period.
- Series:
- dollar-broad-index, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- correlação atual − média da correlação móvel de todo o período
- Values:
- atual=-0.4028 · media_historica=-0.1029 · diferenca=-0.2999
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: Dollar (broad) fell and BTC rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- dollar-broad-index, btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-1.2240 · variacao_b=6470.6100
Broad dollar index (Fed) stands at 118.0628 Index (Jan 2006 = 100) on 08/21/2026, a change of −1.03% from 05/22/2026.
- Series:
- dollar-broad-index
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=118.0628 · data_atual=2026-08-21 · anterior=119.2868 · data_anterior=2026-05-22
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of Broad dollar index (Fed) sits at percentile 3 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the bottom of the available historical range.
- Series:
- dollar-broad-index
- Period:
- 08/29/2023 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=118.0628 · percentil=3.0831 · observacoes=779.0000
What this chart measures
The strength of the dollar against a broad, trade-weighted basket of currencies, set against the price of Bitcoin.
Why this relationship matters
The dollar is the denominator of the global financial system. A stronger dollar has typically accompanied tighter financial conditions, and risk assets in general have struggled in those periods.
How to read it
The typical correlation is negative. What matters is the intensity: a correlation of −0.6 says something different from a correlation of −0.1. Follow the rolling correlation line, not just the price chart.
When this relationship tends to hold
During episodes of synchronized global tightening or easing, when the dollar is the main channel of transmission.
When it can break down
When the crypto market is moved by its own factors — a regulatory approval, the failure of a platform, a shift in institutional flows — the dollar explains little.
Limitations
The difference in basket relative to the DXY is material and should be kept in mind in any comparison with analysis that uses the DXY. Beyond that, a negative correlation between the dollar and risk assets is a regularity, not a law.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
Federal Reserve index DTWEXBGS (Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index, January 2006 = 100), daily on business days. This is NOT the DXY: the DXY is a proprietary ICE index made up of only six developed-market currencies and requires a license for public display. The Fed index uses a broad basket that includes the yuan, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real, and for that reason it diverges from the DXY in magnitude and, occasionally, in direction.
- Broad dollar index (Fed)
- Federal Reserve (H.10) via FRED · Index (Jan 2006 = 100) · business days
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.