U.S. M2 VS. BITCOIN
Does the U.S. money supply help explain the behavior of Bitcoin?
The U.S. M2 monetary aggregate compared with the price of Bitcoin, in levels and in year-over-year change.
US M2
US$ 23.22 T
Source: Federal Reserve (H.6) via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.03
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
Not enough data to compute the correlation over this window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 365 days
- Effective frequency
- monthly
- Sample size
- 12 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.17
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (mensal).
- Amostra de 12 observações é pequena demais para uma leitura confiável (mínimo recomendado: 20).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 16 weeks (0.69). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The selected window produced only 12 comparable observations. There is not enough evidence to state that the measured relationship is stable.
- Series:
- us-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- contagem de pares de observações simultâneas na janela
- Values:
- amostra=12.0000
The 365-day correlation between US M2 and BTC stands at 0.03, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at monthly frequency with 12 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- us-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 365 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.0251 · amostra=12.0000 · metodo=pearson
US M2 stands at 23,218,000,000,000.0000 US$ on 07/01/2026, a change of +2.03% from 04/01/2026.
- Series:
- us-m2
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=23218000000000.0000 · data_atual=2026-07-01 · anterior=22756700000000.0000 · data_anterior=2026-04-01
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of US M2 sits at percentile 100 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the top of the available historical range.
- Series:
- us-m2
- Period:
- 09/01/2021 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=23218000000000.0000 · percentil=100.0000 · observacoes=59.0000
What this chart measures
The stock of broad money in the United States — currency, demand deposits, savings and short-term funds — set against the price of Bitcoin.
Why this relationship matters
The dollar is the reference currency of the global financial system and the unit in which Bitcoin is quoted. Changes in the quantity of dollars affect the denominator of practically every asset price.
How to read it
M2 is monthly and Bitcoin is daily: the statistical comparison is run at monthly frequency, the only one carrying independent information in both series. The chart carries the last known M2 value forward across the intervening days and marks those points as carried forward.
When this relationship tends to hold
Periods of pronounced monetary expansion or contraction, when the signal in M2 is large enough to rise above the noise.
When it can break down
M2 moves slowly and with few observations per year. Over short windows the number of points is too small for a reliable correlation, and the chart can suggest a relationship the sample does not support.
Limitations
M2 is revised and underwent a methodological change in 2020, when savings accounts began to be treated as demand deposits. Comparisons that span that date should be read with caution.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series M2SL, seasonally adjusted, in billions of U.S. dollars, converted to dollars on ingestion. Published monthly with roughly a four-week lag. The default correlation is computed on monthly returns, not on levels.
- US M2
- Federal Reserve (H.6) via FRED · USD · monthly
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.
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