M2 ANNUAL GROWTH VS. BITCOIN ANNUAL RETURN
Have years of stronger monetary expansion tended to be better years for Bitcoin?
The 12-month change in U.S. M2 compared with the 12-month change in the price of Bitcoin.
US M2
US$ 23.22 T
Source: Federal Reserve (H.6) via FRED
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
0.03
Little linear relationship between the two series over the observed period.
Not enough data to compute the correlation over this window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 365 days
- Effective frequency
- monthly
- Sample size
- 12 observations
- Historical mean
- 0.05
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (mensal).
- 678 datas descartadas por ausência de observação simultânea nas duas séries.
- Amostra de 12 observações é pequena demais para uma leitura confiável (mínimo recomendado: 20).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 16 weeks (0.69). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The selected window produced only 12 comparable observations. There is not enough evidence to state that the measured relationship is stable.
- Series:
- us-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 01/01/1959 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- contagem de pares de observações simultâneas na janela
- Values:
- amostra=12.0000
The 365-day correlation between US M2 and BTC stands at 0.03, a very weak association in the same direction, measured on returns at monthly frequency with 12 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- us-m2, btc-usd
- Period:
- 01/01/1959 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 365 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=0.0251 · amostra=12.0000 · metodo=pearson
US M2 stands at 23,218,000,000,000.0000 US$ on 07/01/2026, a change of +2.03% from 04/01/2026.
- Series:
- us-m2
- Period:
- 01/01/1959 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=23218000000000.0000 · data_atual=2026-07-01 · anterior=22756700000000.0000 · data_anterior=2026-04-01
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 07/20/2015 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of US M2 sits at percentile 100 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the top of the available historical range.
- Series:
- us-m2
- Period:
- 01/01/1959 to 07/01/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=23218000000000.0000 · percentil=100.0000 · observacoes=811.0000
What this chart measures
Two annual growth rates side by side, which removes the long-run trend from both series.
Why this relationship matters
Comparing rates of change rather than levels is the correct way to avoid spurious correlation. Two series that only rise over the long run look correlated even with no relationship at all; compared in annual change, what remains is genuine co-movement.
How to read it
Both axes are in percent, but on very different scales: M2 varies by a few percentage points a year and Bitcoin by tens or hundreds. Watch the direction and the timing of the turns, not the amplitude.
When this relationship tends to hold
Around clear monetary inflection points, such as the expansion of 2020 and the contraction of 2022.
When it can break down
The sample is small. Bitcoin has little more than a decade of history with meaningful liquidity, which means few complete monetary cycles to compare. Any conclusion here is suggestive, not conclusive.
Limitations
Year-over-year change series carry autocorrelation by construction: consecutive observations share eleven months of data. That means the correlation coefficient is less informative than the number of observations would suggest.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
Percentage change over 12 months for each series, computed at monthly frequency. For Bitcoin, the monthly observation used is the last of the month. The default correlation window is 365 days, equivalent to twelve monthly observations.
- US M2
- Federal Reserve (H.6) via FRED · USD · monthly
Licence: Domínio público (dado do governo dos EUA)
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.