CREDIT CONDITIONS VS. BITCOIN
Is the credit market signaling stress ahead of risk assets?
The credit subindex of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which measures the cost and availability of credit in the United States, set against Bitcoin.
U.S. credit conditions (NFCI subindex)
-0.086
Bitcoin (USD)
US$ 80,241
Source: Coinbase Exchange
Loading the chart…
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation.
-0.25
Historically associated: weak co-movement, in opposite directions, over the observed window.
- Method
- Pearson
- Basis
- Returns
- Rolling window
- 180 days
- Effective frequency
- weekly
- Sample size
- 26 observations
- Historical mean
- -0.15
- Séries com frequências diferentes; a comparação foi feita na frequência mais baixa (semanal).
Near +1: strong co-movement. Near 0: little linear relationship. Near −1: strong inverse co-movement. In every case, correlation describes co-movement and does not establish cause and effect.
Lead-lagA technique of shifting one series in time to test whether it tends to move before the other.Why it matters: It helps distinguish which variable leads and which one reacts.How to read it: Look at the shape of the correlation-by-lag curve, not just the peak. An isolated peak surrounded by low values is usually noise.Common mistake: Testing dozens of lags and reporting only the best one. The more combinations you test, the higher the chance of finding one that looks good by pure chance.
Correlation recomputed with the first series shifted in time. Read the shape of the whole curve: an isolated peak surrounded by low values is almost always noise.
The highest correlation in absolute value appears at a lag of 16 weeks (-0.31). The data suggests the first series moves ahead, but does not confirm it: testing many lags raises the chance of finding a high value by coincidence.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS NOW
Sentences generated by deterministic rules over the numbers computed on this page. None of them is written by a language model. Open any item to see the formula and the values used.
The 180-day correlation between Credit and BTC stands at -0.25, a weak association in opposite directions, measured on returns at weekly frequency with 26 observations. Correlation measures co-movement and does not establish that one series determines the other.
- Series:
- us-credit-conditions, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- correlação de pearson sobre returns, janela de 180 dias
- Values:
- coeficiente=-0.2469 · amostra=26.0000 · metodo=pearson
Over the last 90 days the two series moved in opposite directions: Credit fell and BTC rose. Divergences of this kind are common and do not, on their own, indicate that either series is wrong.
- Series:
- us-credit-conditions, btc-usd
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- sinal da variação de 90 dias de cada série
- Values:
- variacao_a=-0.0540 · variacao_b=6470.6100
U.S. credit conditions (NFCI subindex) stands at -0.0860 Index (0 = historical average) on 08/21/2026, a change of +168.75% from 05/22/2026.
- Series:
- us-credit-conditions
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=-0.0860 · data_atual=2026-08-21 · anterior=-0.0320 · data_anterior=2026-05-22
Bitcoin (USD) stands at 80,241.3000 US$ on 08/28/2026, a change of +8.77% from 05/30/2026.
- Series:
- btc-usd
- Period:
- 08/28/2021 to 08/28/2026
- Formula:
- (valor atual ÷ valor de ~90 dias atrás) − 1
- Values:
- atual=80241.3000 · data_atual=2026-08-28 · anterior=73770.6900 · data_anterior=2026-05-30
The current value of U.S. credit conditions (NFCI subindex) sits at percentile 8 of the distribution observed over the loaded period — near the bottom of the available historical range.
- Series:
- us-credit-conditions
- Period:
- 09/03/2021 to 08/21/2026
- Formula:
- proporção de observações históricas menores ou iguais ao valor atual
- Values:
- valor_atual=-0.0860 · percentil=8.0769 · observacoes=260.0000
What this chart measures
How expensive and how available credit is in the U.S. economy, summarized in a weekly index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Why this relationship matters
Credit is usually the first market to show deterioration. Tightening credit conditions have historically preceded declines in risk assets.
How to read it
Zero is the historical average. Positive values indicate credit tighter than normal. What matters is the speed of the change, not the absolute level.
When this relationship tends to hold
At turns in the credit cycle, when the cost of funding rises before deterioration shows up in risk assets.
When it can break down
In periods of abundant liquidity the index sits almost flat for many consecutive quarters, with too little variation to carry information — and a flat indicator anticipates nothing.
Limitations
Because it is a standardized index and not a spread, its level is not comparable with basis-point figures quoted by other sources. Being weekly and composite, it is also slow: it is not suited to short-term reading.
SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
FRED series NFCICREDIT, the credit subindex of the National Financial Conditions Index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, weekly with Friday data. It is NOT a spread in basis points: it is a standardized index that aggregates dozens of measures of the cost and availability of credit. The high yield spread itself (ICE BofA, BAMLH0A0HYM2 on FRED) may not be reproduced without written permission from ICE Data Indices and is blocked in the code — the same restriction applies to Moody's Baa index. This subindex is the best free and publishable measure of U.S. credit stress.
- U.S. credit conditions (NFCI subindex)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED · Index (0 = historical average) · weekly
Licence: Direito autoral do Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — exibição permitida mediante citação
View at the original source - Bitcoin (USD)
- Coinbase Exchange · USD · daily
Licence: Dados públicos de mercado da Coinbase Exchange
View at the original source
CorrelationA statistical measure of how much two series move together, ranging from -1 to +1.Why it matters: It allows relationships that look real to the naked eye to be compared objectively.How to read it: Close to +1: strong co-movement. Close to 0: little linear relationship. Close to -1: strong inverse movement.Common mistake: Calculating correlation on price levels instead of returns. Two series that only rise over the long run will produce a high correlation even with no real relationship — the classic spurious correlation. measures co-movement and does not establish CausalityA relationship in which one variable actually brings about the change in another.Why it matters: It is what most people actually want to know, and it is what correlation does NOT answer.How to read it: Establishing causality requires theory, experiment, or statistical identification — it is not enough to observe two lines rising together.Common mistake: Concluding that A causes B because the correlation is high. Often a third factor moves both, or the relationship is a coincidence of the chosen period.. The relationship shown depends on the macroeconomic regime and may weaken or disappear.